Friday, February 20, 2009

Error Analysis: Hypothesis that Heaven and Hell exist

Ho: Heaven and Hell do not exist.
Ha: Heaven and Hell do exist and have certain criteria for entrance.

Type I error: False positive, i.e. reject Ho when Ho is actually true.

In context: Reject the idea that Heaven and Hell do not exist and conclude that Heaven and Hell do exist. In reality, however, Heaven and Hell do not exist.

Consequences of error: A person making this error lives life as if Heaven and Hell existed, thus may choose to deprive himself of certain opportunities, etc., in this life in an effort to live according to what he believes is more likely to keep himself out of Hell and get him into Heaven. However, he does not actually get to enter Heaven and did not really need to worry about going to Hell.

Type II error: False negative, i.e. fail to reject Ho when Ho is actually false.

In context: Operate as if Heaven and Hell did not exist when in reality they do exist.

Consequences of error: A person making this error lives life as if Heaven and Hell did not exist, and thus may choose to engage in certain behaviors that he would have avoided, and vice versa, if he believed they existed. However, it turns out that Heaven and Hell do exist and he most likely goes to Hell because he did not meet the criteria for entrance to Heaven.

Conclusion: Type II error has the worse consequences, therefore a prudent person operates to limit the probability, Beta, of a Type II error.

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